Thursday, November 4


The more things change the more they stay the same. Zimbabwe is still a mess. In fact, ZANU-PF has been able to solidify their hold on power. The MDC has also been unable to rally the people of Zimbabwe in any meaningful way, and I now seriously doubt whether they can do so at all.

The expulsion of the Cosato delegation was interesting if only that it has shown serious division inside the ANC's alliance, and the ANCs continued policy of not criticizing Mugabes regime no matter what.

Zimbabwes will continue its slide towards disaster. The only questions that remain is when that decline will stop (as it surely must) and whether that happens before or after South African SADC troops roll across the border.

Mark my words. The current situation in Zimbabwe can lead to only one thing, and that is war. Thabo Mbeki has been unable to achieve anything significant in Zimbabwe with his soft diplomacy, and I believe the time when a harder diplomatic line might have helped has come and gone.

Our only options now are a) hope for a miracle and b) drag this situation out so long that when our troops go over Zimbabwe is in such a shambles they've gone back to fighting with sticks.

I say on with the soft diplomacy (i.e. option b).


Blogger Mshairi said...

Oh no, not another war in Africa! Option B, please.

04 November 2004 at 17:37  
Blogger Nick said...

If you check out what the SOuth African High Commissioner in London has to say, it is clear the option b) will never happen as long as the ANC is in power. And I think that's a good thing. There are other ways.

04 November 2004 at 19:01  
Blogger Richard said...

Nick: I think you misunderstood. Option b is the government’s current position and is already happening. Soft diplomacy.

War (or military action) will be forced on the South African government if society in Zimbabwe collapses, civil war breaks out, or Mugabe or his successors declare war on a neighbour as fascist governments are wont to do to keep their peoples minds of trouble at home. Botswana is a tempting military target. Rich, and much smaller in comparison. Coincidentialy Botswana has already started upgrading their military capabilities, as has Zimbabwe.

Mshairi: If war was to be avoided much stronger action should have been taken by African countries. Instead African governments have given their tacit support and have followed a policy of appeasement. I believe the time when they 'could' have affected the outcome has come and gone. Mugabes position is now such that no outside diplomatic action can put any real presure on him.

The current situation in Zimbabwe is untenable, and as history has shown inevitable leads to war.

The cry should rather be 'not another dictator apeased!'

05 November 2004 at 09:46  
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