Thursday, August 12

Looking At Iran

Iran will be a nuclear power within months, not years. Is this the disaster that America and Britain would have us believe it to be? I don’t know.

The Soviet Union and consequently most of its client states were nuclear powers. China is a nuclear power. Pakistan is a nuclear power. Lest we forget, North Korea is also a nuclear power. Is Iran really such a great threat in comparison to these other countries? North Korea is willing to sell their grandmothers for doggie food. Are you going to tell me Iran will present a greater threat to nuclear containment?

No. They don’t. The cat is out of the bag and no ones going to put it back.

Will Iran supply nuclear weapons to terrorist organizations "freedom fighters"? If they believe it to be in their interest I believe they would. Would North Korea or Pakistan or China? Ditto. Is it in their interest? Not likely. A nuclear terrorist attack would change the game, make the current "war on terror" seem like a tea party, and possibly wake Europe out of its navel gazing stupor. That's something not one of them wants.

Iran becoming a nuclear power will however change the rules, making it hands off to America at a time when America needs and wants to be very much hands on in Iran. It makes Iran a political power in the Middle East, something it has not been for a while, and will put pressure on America in Iraq. Israel might drop dead from a collective hernia (understandably).

All good for Iran, all bad for America. Is it bad for us (South Africa)? We'll that depends on how were going to look at it. Politically it is a neutral event for South Africa. It forces America to deal with Iran through diplomatic channels, where South Africa has some influence and we could gain by it. On the other hand, Iran has shown political interest in Africa before and they might want to play in our backyard, so to say. A nuclear Iran would definitely be a tempting partner to many small time tin pots on the continent.

Morally? Who are we kidding? We give trains to the Sudanese government so that they can more easily kill people in Darfur, we turn a blind eye to the destruction of Zimbabwe by a greedy megalomaniac, we dump Taiwan the moment China says 'Aye' and couldn’t care a fig about the people of Iraq or any other people suffering under a crazed dictatorship. The morality of the 'poor against the rich' is the only one we understand. Iran becoming a nuclear power is a victory in our book.

Practically? What can we do about it? Well, urm ... nothing. We 'could' condemn Iran and support American interference in Iran. We would gain little to nothing for doing this, except maybe some self-respect, and that would be putting ourselves firmly in the American camp. It’s not really where we care to be. Bush just isn’t photogenic, if you know what I mean. In any case, if America is going to do something our support or lack of it wouldn't affect the outcome anyway. So Hakuna Matata, and heres to hoping they don’t bite us in our ass later.


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